|Posted by victoryresearch on January 24, 2015 at 8:25 PM|
Fioretti Emerges As Primary Alternative to Mayor Emanuel, Could Force Run-off
African-American Voters Searching For Alternative, Not Sold on Wilson or Garcia
January 24, 2015 For more information
For immediate release Contact Rod McCulloch 312-388-1782
While Mayor Rahm Emanuel holds a two to one lead over his nearest rival exactly one month before the February 24th election, Alderman Robert Fioretti has emerged as the leading challenger to the Mayor, ccording to a new independent poll on the Mayor’s race.
The poll of 806 likely Chicago voters, conducted January 17-21 by Victory Research, shows the incumbent Mayor leading in his bid for re-election with 36.4% of the vote. Respondents answered with both land lines and cell phones. The margin of error for the poll is 3.45%
Alderman Robert Fioretti is in second place behind the Mayor with 18.2%. County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is third at 12.0%. Businessman Willie Wilson and William “Dock” Walls are in fourth and fifth place with 8.6% and 0.9% respectively, according to the poll.
Alderman Fioretti builds his runner-up position as a result of a strong showing on the city’s northwest and southwest side, where he finishes a strong second to the Mayor. Fioretti runs a strong third in the largely African-American wards on the south and west sides.
While Mayor Emanuel is far short of the 50% plus one needed to avoid a run-off, there is room for his support to grow. Respondents were asked if Mayor Emanuel “deserves to be re-elected?” Mirroring his support in the head to head ballot question, 39.6% answered “Yes,” while a slight majority, 51.9%, said “No.”
Following the “re-elect” question, respondents were asked, “Is there a chance you could change your mind about Mayor Emanuel’s re-election, or would you say your mind is definitely made up?” Of those who said they believed the Mayor deserved re-election, fully 82% said their mind was definitely made up. Of those who said the Mayor does not deserve to be re-elected, 56.5% said they could still change their mind about their decision regarding the Mayor’s re-election.
Therein lies the window of opportunity for Mayor Emanuel, according to the pollster. “While a slight majority currently believes that Mayor Emanuel does not deserve re-election, Chicago voters are not at the point where they are saying ‘Anybody but Emanuel, no matter what,’” said Rod McCulloch President of Victory Research.
African-American voters are still up for grabs to a large degree. In the predominantly African-American wards on the south side, 38.5% of the voters are still undecided, the largest percentage of undecided respondents of any geographic area of the city.