Illinois Politics

 NEW POLL: EMANUEL SPEECH WINS QUICK APPROVAL FROM VOTERS 

APPROVE OF HIRING MORE COPS, MENTORING PROGRAM

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/emanuel-favorability-up-poll-394603391.html

September 23, 2016 For more information

For immediate release Contact Rod McCulloch 312-388-1782

Two new polls show that Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s sagging political fortunes were bolstered by what he billed as a major policy speech Thursday evening at Malcolm X Junior College.

In a poll of 806 likely Chicago voters conducted by independent polling company Victory Research September 19-21, before the speech, the Mayor’s approval rating stood at 33.1%, while his disapproval was 60.3%. When asked if Mayor Emanuel should be re-elected, if he chose to run in the next election, only 29.7% answered “Yes.”

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, the poll showed that the Mayor would lose to potential challenger Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart by an almost two-to-one margin (61.0%-31.1%) if the election were held today. In a potential rematch with his 2015 mayoral challenger Cook County Commissioner Chuy Garcia, this time Garcia would come out on top (51.0%-36.2%), if the election were held today, according to the poll. The second-term mayor would barely defeat another potential challenger, 6th Ward Alderman Rod Sawyer (38.6%-37.2%), according to the poll.

In a separate poll of 501 likely Chicago voters following the Mayor’s speech Thursday evening, when asked if what they knew or heard about the speech made them “more or less favorable” toward the Mayor, 53.3% of the voters said “More” while 28.5% said “Less.”

In the second poll, following the speech, 44.3% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Mayor, while 51.7% had an unfavorable opinion, an increase in the Mayor’s favorable rating of more than 10%. It is not unusual for a public official’s approval rating to spike higher, even if temporarily, after a major speech or event.

Voters also overwhelmingly approved of two specific policy proposals advanced by the Mayor during the speech. By a wide margin, voters approved of the Mayor’s proposal to hire nearly 1,000 more police officers. Fully eighty percent of voters polled favor hiring nearly a thousand more cops, while only 14.4% oppose the idea, according to the poll.

The poll showed support for the proposal topped eighty percent in the northwest (84.7%) and southwest (88.5%) sections of the city, in the lakefront wards (85.7%), and in the predominantly Latino wards (85.6%). Support was the lowest in the predominantly African-American south side wards (69.8%) and the predominantly African-American west side wards (76.4%).

Voters also favored the Mayor’s proposal to spend $36 million on a three year plan to expand mentoring programs in the city’s most violent neighborhoods, according to the poll, but by a smaller margin than support for hiring more police officers.

The poll showed that support for the expanded mentoring program is strongest in the predominantly African-American south side wards (75.8%), the predominantly African-American west side wards (76.4%), and the predominantly Latino wards (70.0%). The proposal is supported by a majority of voters in Lakefront wards (51.4%), a plurality in the Southwest side wards (48.1%), but is opposed by a slight margin in the Northwest side wards (43.5%-45.9%), but within the poll’s margin of error.

Both polls were conducted by live callers and respondents answered on both mobile phones and land-lines. The margin of error for the first poll of 806 likely voters is 3.45%. The margin of error for the second poll of 501 likely voters is 4.38%.

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