Illinois Politics

Hillary Clinton Lead Shrinks in Illinois as First Debate Looms, New Poll Says

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/New-Poll-Shows-Clintons-Lead-Shrinking-in-Illinois-394842551.html

September 26, 2016 For more information

For immediate release Rod McCulloch 312-388-1782

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in her native state of Illinois by slightly more than thirteen percentage points according to the September edition of The Illinois Poll.

The poll of 1200 likely general election Illinois voters was conducted by live callers between September 21st and September 24th. Respondents answered on both land lines and cell phones. The margin of error is 2.83%. Victory Research is an independent polling group and has been conducting monthly polling about Illinois politics (The Illinois Poll) since 1999. More information at www.illinoispolitics.webs.com.

Former Secretary of State Clinton received 48.6% statewide, according to the poll, compared to 35.1% for the billionaire businessman Trump. Clinton’s lead was slightly more than twenty points in the August Illinois poll, when she led by 20.1% (53.4%-33.1%). It is the first time Clinton’s percentage in Illinois has dipped below 50% since both candidates wrapped up their nominations.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson received 3.9% and Green Party candidate received 1.2% of the vote, according to the poll. Both candidates’ totals were down sharply from the August Illinois Poll (Johnson 6.3%, Stein 3.2%).

Clinton’s lead shrank in part because of an erosion in what is known as the ‘gender gap.’ According to the poll, Clinton expanded her lead among women to 53.5% to 34.3% over Trump. The gender gap between the two candidates last month was larger in August. In the August Illinois poll the gender gap was 61.8-27.5% for Clinton.

According to the poll, Clinton also still has a more unified party behind her candidacy than does Trump. Clinton has the support of 86.0% of Democratic voters while Trump pulls 73.3% of Republican Party support. Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 4.1% of Republican support while Green Party candidate Jill Stein pulls 2.9% of Democratic support.

Geographically, Clinton maintains an overwhelming advantage in the historically reliable Democratic areas of Chicago and the Cook County suburbs. Clinton leads Trump 80.7%-10.5% in Chicago and by 43.8-37.0% in suburban Cook County, according to the poll. Her lead in suburban Cook County is down substantially from August, when she led Trump 52.5%-33.0%.

Trump has caught up or passed Clinton in the more traditional Republican areas of the state, according to the poll. In the Collar Counties, Trump now leads 44.4%-39.9%. In Northwest Illinois, Trump narrowly leads 40.7%-39.8%, and in Central and Southern Illinois, Trump also now has a slight lead 41.1-40.1%.

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